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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.